As we dive into the third quarter of 2023, it’s a perfect moment to reflect on the housing market’s journey so far this year and project what lies ahead. The real estate landscape has been marked by some notable shifts, and understanding these trends can help both homebuyers and sellers make informed decisions in the coming months.
The second quarter of the year saw a significant rise in mortgage interest rates. Starting at 6.32 percent in early April, the average 30-year mortgage loan rate climbed to 6.84 percent by late June. Alongside this, the national median home price rose from $375,400 in March to $396,100 by May. These changes in rates and prices have set the stage for an intriguing Q3.
Experts are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming quarter. Despite traditionally buoyant summer months for real estate, Q2’s elevated rates led to a somewhat subdued environment. The ongoing challenge remains a severe shortage of housing inventory, with new listings for sale hovering around 25-30 percent below last year’s levels. This scarcity of homes, coupled with higher mortgage rates, suggests that the third quarter of 2023 might not witness robust home-buying activity.
Mortgage interest rates, a pivotal factor, are projected to remain within the 6.4 to 6.7 percent range for a 30-year fixed mortgage, according to financial analysts. While recent data suggests that inflation may ease in the coming months, leading to a potential drop in mortgage rates, the predictions vary. Some experts believe rates could even dip below 6.5 percent, while others expect them to hover around 6.75 percent initially and eventually decline toward 6.0 percent by September.
The lack of housing inventory will continue to exert pressure on home prices throughout Q3. Buyers may encounter fierce competition, with a higher percentage of homes selling above the asking price. While home price growth is predicted to average around 4 percent this year, median home prices are anticipated to slightly decrease, settling around $385,000 in Q3.
For potential homebuyers, the current market presents affordability challenges. High home prices combined with elevated mortgage rates mean careful consideration is essential before making a purchase. Experts advise potential buyers to ensure job stability and steady earnings before committing to a home transaction.
On the flip side, sellers continue to have the upper hand in many markets due to tight inventory levels. However, sellers should weigh the benefits of selling against the potential challenge of finding a new home in a market with elevated rates. The decision to sell should take into account the balance between current low mortgage rates and potentially higher ones in the future.
The real estate market in the third quarter of 2023 promises a mix of challenges and opportunities. While the housing shortage and increased mortgage rates pose hurdles, the potential for stabilized or slightly reduced home prices may provide some respite for both buyers and sellers. As you navigate this complex landscape, remember that careful consideration and expert guidance are essential to make the right decisions for your unique circumstances.
If you’re looking for a great deal in a tough real estate market, buying a foreclosed home may be the best option. While the main benefit of purchasing a foreclosure property is the price, the process is more complex than with a traditional real estate listing. It’s important to know what to look for and how to buy a foreclosed home if you want to get the best deal. Here are five tips to keep in mind when buying a foreclosed home.
It is often difficult to access these properties before they become available for sale.
Many people think there must be a secret way to get access to foreclosed properties before they go on the market, but the reality is that most of these properties are owned by large financial institutions that have a lot of other assets. These companies tend to outsource the entire foreclosure process to a management company, which includes hiring a local Realtor to evaluate the property before it is listed. Local banks may be able to provide information on who’s handling the foreclosed property, but this is the exception rather than the rule. So this means it can be difficult to access these properties before they become available to the public.
Make sure that you are actually getting a good deal.
When it comes to buying a foreclosure, it’s important to ensure that you’re actually getting a good deal. Contrary to popular belief, foreclosures are not always the best buy. In fact, most foreclosures are listed on the open market, meaning that the visibility and demand for them are the same as you would expect with other properties. The price of foreclosures is set at the highest possible value in order to meet the needs of the bank and the listing agent. Therefore, it’s important to remember that foreclosures are not being offered at discounted prices.
Conduct a full property inspection, including all utilities.
Before you purchase a foreclosure property, you should get a full inspection done with the utilities turned on. Make sure the house has been winterized, and you can access the furnace if necessary. Be aware that you may need to purchase special access to get the utilities going, which can be costly and time-consuming.
Prepare for the worst if purchasing a home as-is.
If you’re buying a foreclosure in “as-is” condition, you should prepare for the worst. Although no inspection is required, it’s a good idea to have a contractor evaluate the home and estimate the cost of any repairs. An inspection can identify major issues that the bank isn’t aware of, so it’s worth considering. This will help you decide whether you want to proceed with the purchase or walk away from the deal. To make sure you have room to cover repairs and other costs, look for a foreclosure home within the lower end of your budget.
Get a preapproval letter.
If you’re thinking about making an offer on a foreclosure, it’s important to have a mortgage preapproval letter in hand. This letter will outline information about the amount you are able to borrow based on your credit score and income. With foreclosures, the best deals often go quickly, and buyers need to have their financing worked out beforehand. Real estate investors who pay cash are usually the ones to take advantage of these deals.
Investing in real estate is a great way to achieve your financial goals. It can provide multiple strategies to make money and even become your primary source of income. For those with limited experience in real estate investing, getting started can be daunting. Fortunately, there are strategies available that are tailored toward beginners. Taking the time to learn the basics while investing in a beginner-friendly niche is a great way to slowly build knowledge and confidence. As investors gain experience and profits, they can then transition into more advanced strategies. For those just getting started in real estate investing, these strategies provide a great starting point.
Real Estate Wholesaling
Wholesaling is a quick and lucrative way to start in real estate, where a property is secured under market value and assigned to an end buyer for a fee. The wholesaler does not own the property and makes money through the fee added to the contract. Wholesaling involves building a list of potential buyers by using lead generation tactics like emailing, social media, and sending out direct mailers. This list is then used to get information, such as contact details, funding type, and buying criteria, about the investors. This information helps the business determine what deals the investors are interested in and how to get in contact with them. Wholesaling is a great option for beginners in real estate investing because it requires low capital to start and does not involve actually buying properties. It also provides an opportunity to form a reliable network and gain an understanding of the local market.
Real Estate Prehabbing
Prehabbing is a form of real estate investing that involves minimal upgrades to a property, such as cleaning, painting, and landscaping, in order to make it more attractive to other investors. It is a low-cost way of improving property through sweat equity. Investors should look for properties with structural integrity that require minimal repairs while also keeping location in mind. Research the market and identify popular or up-and-coming neighborhoods to ensure the best return on investment. Prehabbing is a low-risk, low-effort investment option that can yield a quick return on investment. The goal of prehabbing is to sell the potential of a property, not the property itself.
REITs are a great way for new investors to get into real estate investing without having to commit full-time to the sector. They allow for the purchase of shares in companies that own income-producing property, providing regular dividends and the potential for above-average returns. To get started, research publicly traded REITs and evaluate their records yourself, including the company’s anticipated growth, current dividends, and funds from operations (FFO). It is recommended to consult with a financial advisor before investing. REITs are an excellent investment option for beginners as they provide an opportunity to benefit from real estate without having to purchase properties. They are also known for providing solid returns with low risk, making them a good way to diversify existing portfolios.
Online Real Estate Platforms
Online real estate platforms allow borrowers and investors to connect, allowing developers to post deals and projects that need financing via debt or equity, while investors can benefit from real estate investing without having to manage ownership or labor. This creates a win-win arrangement for all involved. Financing real estate deals can be a great way to diversify and potentially profit from real estate investments, but it is important to always do your research and be aware of the risks. Investors can choose to invest in single projects or portfolios and receive monthly or quarterly distributions; however, platform membership fees may be required, and the funds may be illiquid with lockup periods.
Purchasing Rental Properties
Investing in rental properties is a great way to earn a fixed monthly income by becoming a landlord. With the right purchase and market, you can cover all expenses and potentially have some profit left over. Rental property owners can have an active or passive income stream depending on their preference; they can outsource tasks such as maintenance and repairs to a property manager or do everything themselves to maximize income. House hacking is a form of investing in rental properties where the owner occupies one of the units and rents out the others, allowing them to qualify for a residential loan while earning rental income.
Real Estate Syndication
Real estate syndication is a partnership between investors to identify and purchase properties, usually with the sponsor managing the search, contract, and property, while other investors contribute capital. The sponsor provides skills and time instead of money. Investors in a syndication deal provide the funds to purchase a property and cover any required repairs or renovations. They take on a passive role and receive a return on their investment through periodic payments. Once the property is renovated and sold, the syndication aspect of the deal is completed, and the sponsors are paid an agreed-upon amount for their involvement.
House flipping involves buying a home below market value, renovating it, and then reselling it for a profit. HGTV often provides an introduction to the concept for those interested in real estate investing. Investors who want to flip houses should be aware of the risks involved, such as spending too much on renovation costs or not being able to sell the house due to price or market conditions. New investors should consider finding an experienced partner to help guide them.
Real Estate Investment Groups (REIG)
REIGs are businesses that specialize in investing in real estate by pooling together investor money to purchase multi-unit housing and commercial properties, as well as buying, renovating, and reselling properties for profit. REIGs are an alternative to REITs, offering investors more flexibility and the ability to diversify their capital sources through different investment strategies. They are attractive to investors who seek the returns of real estate without the burden of property management.
Economic predictions for 2023 are uncertain due to the many unknowns influencing the housing market. The Federal Reserve’s ability to bring down inflation and borrowing costs without affecting buyer demand is a factor yet to be seen. While there is some worry, economists and analysts do not expect a recession. Despite this, there is still a concern about high housing prices and rents that may be unaffordable to many.
With the 2023 housing market still up in the air, the issue of affordability continues to be a barrier for many younger buyers, particularly in more expensive markets. This could mean many of them will be stuck renting for the foreseeable future. However, if remote working continues to increase, they may choose to relocate to more cost-effective areas.
In 2023, the housing market will be affected by typical supply, demand, and affordability factors. Provided the nation is able to dodge a recession or experience only a short and shallow one, these are the predictions for the housing market in 2023.
Home prices are projected to decrease.
It is predicted that existing home prices will decrease by 5% nationally in 2023, with potential drops of up to 10% or more in high-priced areas and regions with high home values. In the event of a deeper recession, prices could decrease by 10% or more in areas with a large discrepancy between home prices and local incomes.
Existing Home Sales Will Slow
The low affordability of homes and low mortgage rates will limit the number of transactions; however, those without mortgages may be more likely to sell. Additionally, more homeowners may choose to keep their homes as investments and rent them out rather than accept a lower sale price.
Construction of new single-family homes will decrease.
Homebuilders increased production during the pandemic to meet demand but are now reducing the number of new homes for sale. In 2023, these homes will either be sold to buyers who signed contracts in 2022, converted into rentals, or sold to investors to rent out. Some builders are downsizing and reducing input costs to offer more new homes to first-time buyers. In 2023, the production of new homes to sell and rent will decrease, particularly for single-family homes. However, in areas with unmet demand for affordable homes, construction may still be higher.
Rents will level out, the rise.
Rent increases have been mostly flat in the past few months and are expected to rise slightly in 2023. However, there could be a decrease in rents due to the highest number of multifamily units under construction since the early 1970s likely to hit the market in 2023, as well as new supply from frustrated short-term rental landlords and homeowners entering the rental business.
Building Permits Will Decline
In 2023, residential building permits are expected to drop more than housing starts as developers and builders take a step back to reevaluate risk in the face of uncertainty. Homebuilders will likely use this time to discount unsold homes, divest from unwanted land, and merge with or acquire smaller competitors in preparation for a rebound.
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rates Won’t Fall Substantially
Mortgage rates are expected to stay high in 2023 due to economic uncertainty and inflation, investors demanding higher rates due to the possibility of refinancing when rates drop, and the Federal Reserve’s insistence on forcing inflation down to 2.0%. It is uncertain if this goal will be achievable in 2023.
A measure of the rise in average prices of goods and services in the economy over a certain period of time, inflation can be seen as a decrease in the purchasing power of the US dollar. Inflation can significantly impact the real estate market, causing potential investors to be cautious. However, inflationary times present potential investment opportunities in the property market; despite the risks, real estate remains a prime investment option to generate passive income. This article will explain how inflation affects real estate and a summary of the typical ramifications.
Increased cost of borrowing.
When inflation is present, it often results in higher costs for borrowing money. To protect their profits, banks will respond by raising the interest rates that borrowers must pay and becoming stricter with lending criteria, which means fewer loans are given out in order to reduce risk.
New build plans can suffer.
In addition to increased borrowing costs, inflation has caused the costs of construction materials, labor, and machinery to rise, making new construction investment difficult.
Increased rental property rates.
High inflation makes it difficult for people to secure affordable mortgages, causing more people to rent and increasing demand for rental properties. This, in turn, leads to a decrease in inventory and an increase in rent prices. For landlords, this can be a good time if their borrowing costs and financial circumstances are favorable.
Property values typically appreciate.
Inflationary times lead to a decrease in new builds, resulting in fewer property inventory levels and higher demand ratios. This increases prices, potentially pricing out potential buyers and causing affordability migration.
Real estate as a hedge against inflation.
Investors purchase real estate as a way to protect against inflation, whereas other investments usually decline in value. Real estate tends to appreciate in value as inflation increases, providing a financial benefit for those with a low interest rate on their property.
The relative cost of historical debt is reduced by inflation.
Inflation can be beneficial for borrowers with pre-existing debt, as wages increase in line with inflation allowing more money to be paid off. This means the same dollar amount is owed, but the currency is now worth less than when it was originally borrowed. Overall, the results of inflation aren’t all negative
The bottom line.
Rising inflation can have both negative and positive effects on the real estate sector; while it can be difficult to enter the market and difficult for renters to find affordable options, landlords with no borrowing costs will be in a good position.
Interest rates are leading to affordability issues in booming markets, which is causing a decrease in demand. However, the lack of property inventory is limiting the extent to which values will drop. Investors often favor real estate due to its resiliency in the face of inflation; it is able to withstand market pressure and usually increases in value.